8
Hugh
Outhred: Wind Energy in the Australian National Electricity Market
Forecasting the output of wind farms
§30 minute horizon
(FCAS & spot market):
–Turbulence spectrum - likely to be uncorrelated
for turbines spaced > 20 km:
§Then % power
fluctuations ~ N-0.5
–eg
for 100 identical wind farms spaced >20 km apart, %fluctuation
in total power ~ 0.1x%fluctuation for 1 farm
§30 minutes to ~3
hours:
–ARMA model best predictor of future
output
§> 3 hours -
NWP model best predictor:
§Key issue for
power system & market operation:
–Predicting large changes in the output of appropriately
aggregated groups of wind farms